An uncertain macroeconomic outlook could lead to divergent outcomes across the real estate market over the next 12 months, according to CBRE’s Singapore Market Outlook 2025 report released on Jan 23.
On the one hand, easing inflation and interest rates are expected to continue providing some relief for the property market going into 2025. However, Moray Armstrong, managing director and advisory services at CBRE, says expectations of slowing economic growth in 2025 could prove detrimental to property demand.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry is projecting Singapore’s GDP growth to come in between 1% and 3% in 2025, easing from the 4% growth recorded in 2024 based on advance estimates released in January.
Armstrong notes that several other variables could potentially impact the market in the near term, including ongoing geopolitical tensions, a new US administration with a nationalistic economic agenda, and the URA Master Plan 2025 which is expected to be released in the middle of the year. Nonetheless, despite the mixed signals, opportunities remain in the real estate market for participants that can capitalise on the emerging trends, he continues.
Tricia Song, CBRE’s head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia, is similarly optimistic, noting that overall, the property market continues to be bolstered by limited new supply and stable levels of demand. “Therefore, in spite of the unknowns, we expect the Singapore real estate market to continue to demonstrate the level of stability and resilience it has offered through the years that make it popular with investors from all around the world,” she predicts.
New launches to sustain private residential sales momentum
URA data shows that developer sales volume surged threefold to 3,511 units last quarter, rebounding from record lows registered in the first nine months of 2024. Prices rose 2.3% q-o-q, marking the highest quarterly growth in 2024.
While the rebound prompted speculations of fresh cooling measures being introduced, CBRE believes this an unlikely scenario. “We do not think that is probable at this juncture unless prices accelerate sharply in the coming quarters,” the firm says.
Amid improved buying sentiment, developers are anticipated to push ahead with launches. An estimated 12,000 to 14,000 new units are potentially being launched this year — nearly double the 6,647 units launched in 2024. As a result, CBRE projects between 7,000 to 8,000 new homes could be sold in 2025, increasing from 2024’s 6,469 units.
The higher volume is anticipated to support price growth ranging between 3% and 6% in 2025, extending the 3.9% growth logged in 2024. At the same time, CBRE predicts rental rates will grow between 1% and 3% this year.
Limited supply to support prime office and retail rents
The office market saw a more muted 2024, as global economic uncertainties, elevated fit-out costs and hybrid work arrangements slowed leasing volumes. Core CBD (Grade A) rents grew by just 0.4% y-o-y last year, slowing from the 1.7% rental growth recorded in 2023.
With economic growth expected to slow in 2025, office leasing momentum is projected to stay muted as uncertainties temper expansionary demand.
On the flip side, a limited pipeline of new Core CBD (Grade A) offices over the next three years is forecasted to keep vacancy rates low. Between 2025 and 2027, about 0.58 million sq ft of new office space will be completed per annum, less than half the 10-year annual average of 1.28 million sq ft.
Consequently, CBRE predicts the limited medium-term supply and a continued flight to quality by occupiers will support Core CBD (Grade A) rental growth of about 2% for 2025, in line with GDP projections.
Limited supply is also expected to support rents in the retail property market. The expected supply of new retail space is forecasted to drop to 0.5 million sq ft in 2025 (40.4% lower than in 2024) and stay at levels below the 10-year historical average of 0.91 million sq ft per annum.
CBRE adds that leasing sentiment for retail property remains positive, supported by inbound tourism and a robust pipeline of entertainment and other events. As such, the firm is projecting average retail prime rents to grow by 2% to 3% in 2025, recovering to pre-pandemic levels.
Prime logistics rents to stay flat, investment sales momentum to persist
According to CBRE, expansion demand by occupiers in the industrial sector was subdued in 2024 amid cost pressures and supply chain disruptions triggered by the Red Sea crisis. As a result, rents for prime logistics properties have been in consolidation, rising just 1.1% to $1.87 psf per month in 2024.
Going into 2025, a bumper supply of almost 5 million sq ft of warehouse space is expected to be completed this year. However, at least 60% of new prime logistics space has been pre-committed, which CBRE says should alleviate downward pressure on occupancy rates. To that end, the firm predicts prime logistics rents will stay relatively flat in 2025.
Meanwhile, in the capital markets, CBRE believes real estate investment volume in Singapore will continue growing in 2025, albeit at a slower pace. In 2024, real estate investment volumes saw a 28% y-o-y increase to $28.62 billion, reversing from the 30.3% y-o-y decline recorded in the previous year.
This followed interest rate cuts that bolstered investor sentiment and appetite, which is expected to persist into 2025, says CBRE. According to its latest Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, the majority of investors transacting in Singapore real estate expect to purchase the same volume or more in 2025 compared to 2024.
However, given ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, CBRE anticipates investors to be selective in the near term, opting to allocate capital into specific sectors or strategies with a more favourable outlook. CBRE anticipates a 10% y-o-y growth in investment volumes in 2025, barring macroeconomic shocks.
CBRE’s survey also found that the industrial and logistics sector remained the most preferred among investors, followed by residential assets and office properties.
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