With 29 years of experience in real estate, including four years as the CEO of ERA Singapore, I have had the unique opportunity to witness firsthand the numerous transformations that have influenced Singapore’s real estate scene.
Over numerous building projects, Singapore’s master planning has reshaped our skyline and established a solid foundation for our nation’s and its people’s ongoing development. At the same time, our government has shown a strong commitment to maintaining housing stability by directly addressing market challenges.
Singapore has shown remarkable resilience despite many obstacles, from addressing early land shortages to managing recent pandemic-fuelled supply disruptions.
Similarly, major financial crises have provided transformative insights that led to the implementation of structural protections such as the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) and the mortgage servicing ratio (MSR).
A resilient market is now being tested
As Singapore celebrates its 60th anniversary this year, many reasons exist to take pride in our policy and nation-building accomplishments.
Nevertheless, ongoing success also requires honest reflection and adaptability. Just like past events and demographic shifts have greatly transformed our property market, new trends will continue to emerge — and they will require proactive engagement to ensure local housing stays inclusive and accessible.
In the last 20 years, average household incomes in Singapore have increased by 111%. Yet, this uptick in earnings has been outpaced by a booming property market, with the Private Property Price Index climbing 148% and the HDB Resale Price Index soaring by an astonishing 169% during the same period.
The widening gap between income and prices has presented significant challenges to affordability for those seeking to purchase private homes. Although the increase in HDB resale prices has been advantageous for some, many struggle to upgrade due to the parallel rise in private property values.
Executive condominiums (ECs) have become a practical middle-ground choice in this climate. They offer premium condo-style living at a subsidised price in return for stricter eligibility requirements, including an income ceiling of $16,000 and limits on the MSR.
However, despite the continued strong allure of ECs, younger first-time homebuyers now face a steeper path to entry due to rising EC prices and higher upfront cash. In contrast, second timers often have accumulated housing equity to leverage, and with the deferred payment scheme, it becomes easier for them to purchase an EC.
As concerning as these affordability pressures may be, they are not the only challenges for today’s homebuyers, especially given the broader socio-economic patterns reshaping Singapore’s housing market.
Forces reshaping housing in the next decade
With one in four Singaporeans projected to be 65 or older by 2030, policymakers must address the impending silver tsunami and its extensive socio-economic implications. For instance, alongside this demographic shift, we have observed the growing influence of wealth transfers in driving housing demand.
We have seen a growing number of private homeowners right-sizing in hopes of tapping into their housing equity for retirement while still owning a property that holds value. Simultaneously, some younger homebuyers are now benefitting from parental wealth transfers. It underscores the generational wealth disparity and the widening gap between income growth and housing price appreciation.
On the supply side, rising land costs are also contributing to the growth of private housing prices. Locally, developers acquire land through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme via a competitive bidding process, where the highest bidder is typically awarded the tender, provided the bid is above the reserve price. This dynamic often drives land prices upward and more so in desirable locations.
Separately, as part of Singapore’s efforts to meet net-zero emissions by 2050, the government’s carbon pricing strategy will see the carbon tax rise to $25 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) in 2024 and 2025 and $45 tCO2e in 2026 and 2027, with a view to reaching $50–80 tCO2e by 2030. These hikes are set to drive construction costs up, potentially impacting future housing prices.
Better to invest in a home today instead of waiting for tomorrow
With the abovementioned trends so deeply entrenched in our real estate market, home prices are anticipated to remain stable. Hence, instead of finding the “perfect time” to enter the property market, the wiser approach is to maximise your time. After all, real estate has consistently shown its long-term investment potential with its track record of steady appreciation over time.
For young homebuyers, the most logical first step is to secure a Build-to-Order (BTO) flat as their starter home. BTOs come with a range of subsidies and grants that significantly reduce the cost of homeownership. That will set the stage for future asset progression opportunities.
Buyers should also remain open-minded to take advantage of the first-mover advantage. After all, Singapore’s efficient urban planning ensures that no area is left underdeveloped for long. Identifying these emerging neighbourhoods in advance allows buyers to capitalise on attractive entry prices and potentially benefit from future growth as the area matures and infrastructure improves.
Therefore, planning, patience, and foresight are the keys to unlocking a home and acquiring growth opportunities in real estate. At the same time, buyers should also bear in mind that your journey in real estate isn’t a plan for tomorrow — it’s a future that starts now.
Marcus Chu is the CEO of ERA Singapore, ERA Asia Pacific and APAC Realty
