HDB resale prices up 1.5% q-o-q in 1Q2025 in flash estimate

Resale prices in the HDB resale market are estimated to have increased by 1.5% q-o-q in 1Q2025, according to HDB’s flash estimate published on April 1. This is less than the 2.6% q-o-q increase recorded in 4Q2024.

The flash estimates also reveal that the number of resale HDB transactions fell to 6,392 flats, a 7.7% y-o-y decline compared to 1Q2024. This is the lowest quarterly sales volume since 2Q2020.

Nevertheless, HDB resale prices rose for the 20th consecutive quarter, says Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group (OTG). She adds that the moderate growth in resale prices last quarter indicates that some price resistance is setting in among buyers.

Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex Realty, echoes the sentiment. “The HDB resale market has maintained its price growth streak in 1Q2025, although the sales momentum seems to have slowed slightly in the quarter, possibly affected by the large supply of BTO and SBF flats launched in February 2025,” she says.

In the February Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises, many of the SBF flats were already completed or had very short completion times. “We reckon the BTO flats with shorter waiting times and the availability of completed SBF flats could have drawn some demand away from the resale market,” says Wong.

The deceleration in price growth was seen across all flat types. Four-room flats saw a quarterly increase of 1.9% in 1Q2025, down from the 2.2% q-o-q growth in 4Q2024. Five-room flats saw a quarterly growth of 2.1%, down from the 2.7% q-o-q growth in the preceding quarter.

According to data compiled by OTG, the average price of a four-room flat is about $665,195, while the average price of a five-room flat is about $769,936.

The sale of million-dollar flats now accounts for 5% of island-wide market volume in 1Q2025. The first three months of this year saw 339 flats change hands for a million dollars or higher, a jump of 18.9% compared to 4Q2024 and a 2.4% increase compared to 3Q2024.

According to Lee Sze Teck, senior director of analytics at Huttons Asia, the limited supply of resale flats in the market contributed to the increase in million-dollar HDB flats. “Buyers are concentrating on flats in mature estates. More than 90% of the million-dollar flats in 1Q2025 are in the mature estates,” he says.

Based on data compiled by Huttons Asia, Toa Payoh recorded the highest number of million-dollar flats last quarter at 66, followed by Bukit Merah at 50, and Queenstown at 41.

Recently, the number of four-room million-dollar flats has “consistently” outstripped the sale of five-room million-dollar flats, says Wong. She reckons that this trend is bolstered by transactions of flats that have recently attained their minimum occupation period (MOP) in locations such as Alkaff Crescent, Bidadari Park Drive, Circuit Road, Dawson Road, St George’s Lane, Strathmore Avenue, and Toa Payoh East.

“This trend could likely continue in view of the limited stock of five-room resale flats in attractive central locations,” says Wong.

Looking ahead, HDB will launch about 5,400 BTO flats as part of the July BTO exercise. The flats will be in Bukit Merah, Bukit Panjang, Clementi, Sembawang, Tampines, Toa Payoh, and Woodlands.

In addition, HDB will conduct a second SBF exercise this year, after 5,590 SBF flats were offered in February. More details on these two exercises will be published later.

Over the next three years, HDB plans to launch more than 50,000 BTO flats, which includes 19,600 flats this year.

Meanwhile, more resale flats are expected to enter the secondary market in the coming years, with 8,000 flats expected to complete their MOP this year; 13,500 flats in 2026; and 19,500 in 2028.

Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, notes that the “limited” supply of MOP flats this year is expected to place upward pressure on resale prices, particularly for well-located units that are not subject to new resale restrictions introduced under the Plus and Prime classifications, he says.

“There are increasingly more HDB dwellers willing to upgrade within the HDB market itself, shelling out premium prices to purchase larger homes in central locations with longer leases, such as newly MOP flats,” says Lim. “With a reduced supply of MOP flats in 2025, which have been a key driver of resale transactions in recent years, we should see a moderate price growth and fewer transactions to close out the year.”

ERA expects the HDB resale market to record a 3%–6% price growth this year, with 26,000 to 27,000 resale transactions during this period.

PropNex forecasts a more optimistic price growth of 5%–7% this year, with 28,000 to 29,000 resale flats changing hands. “The resilient HDB resale market could bode well for the private housing segment, in that some flat owners may seek to leverage the proceeds from the sale of their flat to purchase a private home — particularly with an exciting pipeline of launches lined up in the coming years (based on the slate of private residential sites sold by the government),” says Wong.

HDB says that with the higher supply of new BTO flats set to enter the market and lower application rates of first-timer families, the July BTO sales exercise will see the allocation quota for second-timer families buying three-room and bigger flats increase by 5% points.

Other policies to support local homebuyers include expanding the Deferred Income Assessment scheme to cover young couples where one party is a full-time student or National Serviceman. The Family Care Scheme (Proximity) will provide priority access if children (married or single) are applying for a flat to live close to their parents.

The Fresh Start Housing Scheme has also been enhanced with an increased Fresh Start Housing Grant to assist more households living in public rental flats to attain homeownership.