HDB resale prices recorded a quarterly increase of 2.6% in 4Q2024, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the resale market, according to quarterly data published by HDB on Jan 24.
This brings the cumulative price increase in the public housing market to 9.7% across the whole of 2024. On a yearly basis, the uptick in resale prices last year nearly double the 4.9% y-o-y price increase registered in 2023.
The rise in resale prices last quarter moderated slightly compared to the 2.7% q-o-q increase that was recorded in 3Q2024. According to Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research & data analytics at SRI, the robust growth in resale prices throughout 2024 can largely be attributed to the limited supply of flats that reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) during the year.
“This tight supply created some (upward) pressure on (resale) prices, particularly as buyers showed strong interest in newer flats and larger flat types, such as five-room and executive units, which cater to growing family needs,” he says.
Among the various flat types in the HDB resale market, five-room flats recorded the highest resale price growth in 4Q2024, says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia.
The average resale price of five-room flats jumped 2.2% q-o-q to $754,097. Meanwhile, resale prices of four-room flats increased 2.2% q-o-q to $652,544 in 4Q2024.
The Central Area saw the highest increase in prices, growing 25.6% q-o-q, says Christine Sun, chief researcher & strategist at OrangeTee Group. Toa Payoh saw the second-highest quarterly growth at 12.1%, followed by Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%) and Bedok (6.1%).
About 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more in the last three months of 2024. This brings the total number of million-dollar HDB resale transactions to 1,035 for the whole of 2024.
More than 90% of these transactions occurred in mature estates, says Lee, adding that the Kallang/Whampoa estate saw the highest number of million-dollar flats change hands at 156 units, followed by Toa Payoh at 144 units and Bukit Merah at 135 units.
Year-end lull in transaction volume
Resale transactions in the HDB market fell 21.1% q-o-q from 8,142 units sold in 3Q2024 to 6,424 units sold in 4Q2024.
Seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season contributed to the fall in transaction volume, says Lee. He adds that the lower interest rate environment may also have encouraged some buyers to move to the private residential market or the Executive Condominium (EC) market.
Some prospective buyers may also have opted to ballot for a flat in the latest Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise, which took place last October, says SRI’s Sandrasegeran.
That BTO sales exercise saw HDB launch a record 15 projects comprising 8,573 flats under the new location-based classification framework. Singles were also allowed to buy two-room flexi BTO flats in all locations for the first time.
Nevertheless, the overall resale transaction volume for 2024 increased by 8.4% y-o-y from 26,735 units sold in 2023 to 28,986 units sold in 2024. This marks the largest number of yearly resale transactions since 2021, when 31,017 flats were sold.
According to transaction data compiled by Huttons Asia, Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines and Yishun were the top five most popular HDB towns among buyers in 2024. Resale transactions across these estates accounted for around 35.9% of all HDB resales in 2024.
Top Five most popular HDB Towns among buyers in 2024
(Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics as of 24 Jan 2025)
Fall in newly MOP flats for 2025
Looking ahead, proximately 6,976 flats are expected to reach the end of their MOP this year. This will be a 41.6% decrease in new housing supply entering the secondary public housing market compared to the 11,952 flats in 2024.
Sandrasegeran says that this is a result of the relatively fewer BTO flats completed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
HDB has since announced plans to launch over 25,000 new flats across three BTO sales exercises in 2025. This will comprise 19,600 BTO flats and more than 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise.
The next SBF exercise will take place concurrently with the upcoming BTO sales exercise in February, where 5,000 BTO flats in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands, and Yishun will be offered.
This will be the largest SBF exercise held by HDB since Nov 2020 when 5,220 units were made available. About 4 in 10 of the 5,500 SBF flats that will be offered next month are already completed.
The substantial ramp-up in public housing supply aims to address the growing demand for housing, says Sandrasegeran. “SBF flats are particularly appealing to home seekers who value the option of acquiring a brand-new, ready-to-move-in flat with a shorter waiting time compared to the typical BTO process,” he says.
Additionally, about 3,800 units of the 19,600 BTO flats planned for launch in 2025 will be designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats, offering wait times of less than three years.
Sandrasegeran forecasts resale prices in the HDB market for 2025 could increase by 3.5% to 5.5%, with resale transaction volume ranging between 26,000 and 27,000. But Hutton’s Lee projects a more optimistic price increase of between 5% to 8% across the year.
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